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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Other Voices: Over $5 Billion Sits Idle In Santa Fe And Draws Ire Of State Senator; Years Of Complaining But Reform Remains Elusive 

$5 billion and counting. That's how much sits idle in state capital outlay funds as the dysfunctional method of getting those funds out the door for needed public works projects acts more like a roadblock than the needed speed ramp. 

Over the years lawmakers have called the system a disgrace and worse but reform efforts have been pushed back because it is our lawmakers who cling to a system that gives them too much power over that money. Today retiring ABQ Dem Senator Bill Tallman takes one last stab at creating momentum for change:

An exorbitant $5.2 billion is sitting idle in the state’s capital outlay reserve. Capital outlay funds are taxpayer dollars set aside to be used exclusively for construction projects. This massive reserve is unfortunate, unnecessary, and not the best use of limited resources. Yet, it doesn’t have to be this way. If New Mexico had a systematic, integrated method of allocating capital outlay, our state would not have this problem. Most of the funds would have been spent by now resulting in more projects being completed in a timely manner. This delay in spending will result in fewer projects being built given that construction costs have skyrocketed. 

Earlier this year, the Legislative Finance Committee reported a 50% increase in private and public nonresidential construction costs in NM over the past four years. This is the second highest escalation in the US and is part of a broader national trend of rising construction costs, which have surged by 43% since early 2019. Most cities, counties, and states prepare 10, 15, or 20-year capital improvement plans whereby they determine how much funding will be allocated in year one to specific projects and then do the same for each succeeding year of the plan. This systematic approach provides for a sufficient amount of money appropriated to either start or complete a project, resulting in very little funding sitting idle. 

Sen. Tallman
Governing magazine has ranked New Mexico’s capital outlay allocation system as the second worst in the nation. For the past four decades, capital outlay funding has been divided equally among the Senate, the House, and the Governor. Each legislator selects from a laundry list of projects they wish to fund. There is no procedure in place to prioritize or vet the projects on a statewide basis. Consequently, the most urgent projects are not prioritized, nor is there any formal coordination among legislators to make sure projects are fully funded so construction can begin immediately, without unnecessary delay.

There is a limited amount of informal, haphazard collaboration among legislators. Thus, as is currently the case, billions of dollars sit unspent for years, waiting for projects to be fully funded. In certain instances, projects are completed that would not have been constructed had a more refined system of allocation been enacted by the state legislature.In lieu of a system employed by most political subdivisions, we have a system whereby each legislator does his or her own thing.

On several occasions I have introduced legislation to reform the capital outlay system, however it was either never scheduled for a hearing or was killed in the first committee hearing. It is imperative that New Mexico act more responsibly with taxpayer dollars by implementing a professional, integrated and strategic plan of allocating capital outlay. 

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Wednesday, March 27, 2024

One Sure Sign Primary '24 is Hitting its Stride, Plus: On The Pot Watch Beat; Readers React To Rodriguez Column  

Rep. Sanchez (LA Daily Post)
Let's start on a lighter note today. If you want to know if the June 4 primary election is starting to heat up take a look at this social media post from District 40 Dem state Rep. Joseph Sanchez of Alcalde:

It has come to my attention that a mug shot of me from about 13 years ago is circulating. This was the result of a warrant for failure to appear in court for a seat belt ticket. I have disclosed this in every questionnaire where the question has been asked whether or not I have ever been arrested and want to set the record straight. Hope everyone has a great day and God bless. 

That's enough proof for us. Primary season is officially here along with the usual tricks of the trade.

Sanchez is unopposed in the June primary. The sole GOP candidates is Diego Olivas of Mora. Sanchez, a conservative Dem, has rankled progressives in Santa Fe but not Republicans.

And yes, we will again have our decades-long watch over who fudges the truth on the ABQ Journal candidate questionnaire on those little questions like seat belt tickets and/or other infractions candidates make foolhardy efforts to cover up.  

There's always several who stumble down that harrowing and unrewarding path but this year we don't think one of them will be Joseph Sanchez. 

POT WATCH

Our Other Voices blog last Thursday authored by Duke Rodriguez, CEO of Ultra Health, the state's largest cannabis retailer, decried the state of the legal pot industry and drew email responses. Here's a sample:

An ABQ reader writes:

Joe, what happened to distancing? There are some pot shops less than 50 yards from each other's property lines. On Fourth Street from I-40 to Montaño I counted 11 and one about to open. The state is making bank on licensing fees and licenses holders who soon learn their pie in the sky boat is sinking fast. Did MLG really think the Cartels would pack up and go away? Maybe she should have put all that effort into a more pressing issue like CYFD, but how many CYFD lobbyists are there? 

Reader David Strip writes: 

While there were many good reasons for decriminalizing or legalizing marijuana, generating tax revenues was not one of them. Anyone who thought that the revenues would have a meaningful impact on state budgets was indulging in fantasy. Unless you thought we were a state of dopers, all you had to do is look at the market size in Colorado, scale for the population, tweak a bit for cross-border sales and you would come up with estimates that are pretty much in line with what we see today. 

Much of Duke Rodriguez's remarks reflect that fantasy. He blames inflation, fentanyl and continued black market sales for the industry's failure to see continued growth. But why should we expect growth? Once the dispensaries opened, some fraction of existing marijuana users stopped buying from black-market sources and some stopped traveling to Colorado. Some number of people who didn't use in the past for a variety of reasons became users. But one would have expected the market to quickly come to equilibrium, and that's exactly what we're seeing. The lack of profitability stems from the over-expansion of the industry.

Reader James O'Neill writes: 

Given the Governor's rah-rah support for the cannabis industry, where are her news releases touting the accomplishments of NM's alcohol industry? Booze and beer pay a lot more taxes. Why not celebrate sales of oxycodone and other narcotics as well? As for Ultra Health and the (few) other big players, they just have to hold on for another year or so to drive out all the small players and finally reap the fat financial rewards they've been dreaming about. No doubt they will use the time to lobby for reduced tax rates since they are such a distressed industry. 

THE BOTTOM LINES

We note the passing of longtime friend, blog reader and public servant Carmie Toulouse who died earlier this month. From her obit

She spent 30 years as a civil servant in the NM Human Services Department. . .After her retirement, Carmie dedicated herself to furthering education in New Mexico. She was elected to the CNM Governing Board and served 12 years before being elected to the Public Education Commission where she served 15 years. She shared her talents on many boards and volunteer positions. Carmie loved reading, travel, education, history, car racing, opera, cooking and New Mexico politics.

Carmie Toulouse was 78. 

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Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Land Commissioner Jolts Oil Boys; Halts Leases For Drilling On Prime State Land; Says Royalty Rate Too Low; Blog Explores Politics At Play In The Big Move 

Garcia Richard
Election '26 is a far off affair but it appears it could already be influencing state energy policy. 

State Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard has made a sudden turn and is now going after the oil boys. In what appears to be an unprecedented decision she has halted leasing for oil drilling on prime pieces of state trust land until the royalty rate is raised to 25 percent from 20 percent, the same as Texas.

This comes after six years of Garcia Richard, who took office in 2019, letting the industry be. 

She did mention a royalty rate increase upon taking office, but a review of her news releases for the following years reveals no mention of increasing the rate. So her full-throated attack has raised the specter of politics playing a role. The Commissioner defends her decision saying:

I am a fiduciary on behalf of the school kids. It’s my job to make them the most money possible, and leasing these tracts below market rate means that school kids are subsidizing the oil and gas activity.

But insider Democrats are saying that the Commissioner, a former six year state legislator, is planning a bid for the '26 Dem lieutenant governor nomination and that her punishment of oil resonates with the left-wing of the Democratic Party which has major influence over who gets nominated. 

They add that her call for the higher rate is a trigger for some Dems and could help Garcia Richard with fund-raising. Her last campaign report in October showed a meager cash balance of $5,800. 

HIKE STALLS


As for the Legislature raising the royalty rate, the outlook is negative. This past session the liberal House did approve an increase but it stalled in the Senate. 

A member of the Senate Finance Committee tells us the votes still "are not there" for a hike, although Finance Committee Chairman George Muñoz, who has seemed more wary of the oil industry in recent months, came with a statement that showed irritation:

Muñoz said the (royalty rate) bill got held up when he asked about the total tax burden on petroleum producers and didn't get an answer. I agree with her withholding the leases because I'd love to have the best wells in New Mexico saved for our future, not spent today. . . The more we save for the future, the better off we are.

TEXAS VS. NM

Garcia Richard has every right to advocate for a royalty hike and make her argument that it would mean significantly more money for the state's Permanent Fund over the long run. But opponents say comparing New Mexico and Texas rates is like comparing apples to oranges. GOP Sen. Gay Kernan:

You cannot compare Texas and New Mexico because so much land in Texas is private. In New Mexico, we're mostly federal and state land with very little private land. It's just different.

Also, the state has taken in unprecedented revenue from oil and gas the last several years, so much so that legislators have been stymied over how to put all that loot to work. They have resorted to establishing numerous trust funds worth billions from which the interest generated goes to a variety of programs including nearly $1 billion for a higher education trust fund.

With this backdrop of historic revenues, raising taxes on any business entity now is like pushing a rock up Wheeler Peak. Even socially useful taxes like a boost in the tax on alcohol in a state ranked worst in the nation for alcohol deaths, could not get through the Roundhouse. 

LA POLITICA

Combined with her years of silence and now her sudden insistence that the state forego drilling revenue until lawmakers see it her way, the Commissioner's move lends itself to political analysis. 

The sitting Governor offers some advice to the Commissioner:

Whether I agree or disagree, I respect her decision. . . An approach that has worked well for my administration is to try to create partnerships and get everybody with a vested interest to the table to make decisions. We want to make sure the state holds the industry accountable, but this is an energy state, and we need to listen to all stakeholders.

Meanwhile, the other dust that is being kicked up on the '26 campaign trail tells us that the two prominent names being mentioned by the Great Mentioner for the Dem Guv nomination remain Sen. Martin Heinrich and Sec. of Interior Deb Haaland. But if Republican Nella Domenici wounds Heinrich in his re-election bid this fall, his chances could be hurt. 

As for Garcia Richard's chances for the lieutenant governor nod, she is a proven vote-getter and while cynics may decry her move on the royalty rate, she would be a name player in the nomination contest. 

ANOTHER DIVIDE

To further illustrate the divide over oil drilling among state Dems, Rep. Gabe Vasquez of the southern district, in a heated contest for re-election with Republican Yvette Herrell, broke with his liberal NM House colleagues last week on a key energy vote regarding the controversial practice of fracking for oil which is common in the SE NM oil fields in his district:

HYDROCARBON FRACKING: The House has passed the Protecting American Energy Production Act (H.R. 1121), sponsored by Rep. Jeff Duncan, R-S.C., to bar an executive order by the president banning hydraulic fracturing (fracking) of oil and natural gas wells without Congressional authorization, and state that states should continue to be the primary regulators of fracking. The vote, on March 20, was 229 yeas to 188 nays. NAYS: Stansbury, Leger Fernández YEAS: Vasquez

Keep running, Gabe. Just don't look back. Someone may be gaining on you. 

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Monday, March 25, 2024

APD DWI Scandal: How Deep? Fifth Cop Caught Up In Alleged Scheme Resigns; Asserts Corruption Is "Generational"; City Awaits Fed Dominoes To Start Falling, Plus: Political Impact Of Scandal Now Less Cloudy and Legal Beagle Analysis  

Will it be just few bad men or a broadening and deepening scandal that could bring down more than the five cops already under investigation in the APD DWI scandal? 

That's the question that has lurked since the scandal broke in January, the core of which has cops conspiring with at least one defense attorney to get his DWI cases thrown out of court by having the cops failing to show up for the trials--for a price, of course, which was allegedly extracted from DWI suspects.

Now that question is front and center as the last of the five officers known to be under investigation has resigned from APD but not without dropping a bombshell letter that shook the city's judicial and political centers. (Reports here and here.) 

That letter from Joshua Montaño points to something darker and deeper at APD: 

When I was put on administrative leave, I thought there would be an opportunity for me to talk to the department about what I knew regarding the FBI’s investigation. I thought there would be a time where I could disclose what I knew from within APD and how the issues I let myself get caught up in within the DWI Unit were generational. I thought there would be a time where I could talk about all the other people who should be on administrative leave as well, but aren’t. That opportunity was denied to me though. . . 

Joshua Montaño
My lawyer has explained in order for me to talk to the City about what I knew, I needed to not be the City’s scapegoat for its own failures. Instead, APD Chief Medina has made it seem like there are just a few bad officers acting on their own. This is far from the truth. None of allegations against myself or others in the DWI Unit happened without supervisory knowledge. And they didn’t just happen over a few years ago. From my time as a probation officer, officers all know that our attendance, or non-attendance, at Court is watched over and monitored. 

Montaño's lawyer is Tom Grover, himself a former cop, who has become a leading critic on social media of Mayor Keller and APD Chief Medina over their handling of crime. 

Montaño's use of the word "generational" implies years of possible wrongful activity in the DWI Unit. Hunt has been with APD for 18 years. 

An APD spokesman says the internal investigation is also looking at retired officers. 

Retired APD sergeant and watchdog Dan Klein reacts: 

His letter is clear. He wants to tell all for a deal with the US Attorney. This should scare Medina, Keller, attorneys, cops, retired cops, judges and prosecutors--current and retired. His letter would lead the reader to believe this corruption is deep and goes back a long time. 

Federal investigations often go forward with suspects being asked to tell all they know in exchange for favorable court treatment. Are the dominoes already falling in the APD probe or about to fall? Who else, if anyone, will be implicated in the Federal probe? 

Klein's warning that if there's a time for anyone connected to the DWI scheme--past or present--to be shaking in their boots--this is that time. 

LEGAL BEAGLE ANALYSIS

Here's one of our Legal Beagles tracking what has become a fascinating case in the city and state legal community: 

Montaño is asserting he knows a lot more about APD shenanigans and resents that he (and infers others) were being scapegoated for what all were doing with the knowledge of this from supervisors. He is patently accusing Medina of participating in a coverup by stating "(Medina) made it seem like there are just a few bad officers acting on their own. None of the allegations…happened without supervisory knowledge.” 

Were I in the US Attorney’s office (if this has not already occurred) I would be extremely interested in everything Montaño has to say and would be offering him a deal before he decides to clam up. Implicating Medina and others is potentially quite explosive: if he has the goods on those in the command structure, the whole of APD and those associated with it could come tumbling down. 

Mayor Keller should beware and reconsider his relationship with Medina before he becomes too much of a liability.

POLITICAL FALLOUT 

The political fallout from the DWI scandal is becoming less cloudy as the headlines continue to blare bad news. 

ABQ Mayor Keller never did have much of a chance at winning statewide office--no mayor ever has--but the DWI scandal seems to seal his fate in that regard. He has said he will seek a third, four year mayoral term in 2025 but that too is now more questionable. 

The key is who surfaces to run against him. A Republican would not seem to have much chance in a city dominated by the Dems but an independent outsider Democrat could find an opening (although in an unsettled environment a level-headed, moderate GOP business type can't be ruled out). 

Medina and Keller
Apathy has been Keller's best friend. The DWI scandal could change that apathy to anger. 

There are telltale signs that the scandal is getting more political. Former GOP US Senate candidate and businessman Mich Rich recently penned an op-ed highly critical of Keller and Medina. 

As we said, it's tough for a Republican to win an ABQ election but Rich has the credentials that may be appealing to a disgruntled electorate. He is not affiliated with the current city government power structure. He has enough personal wealth to aid in amassing the $1 million or more needed for a successful challenge and has learned enough about politics to appeal to voters outside of his party and have a go at isolating Keller in the progressive Democratic wing. 

Again, a Dem with Rich's credentials would have the better shot but things can happen if the mayoral derby turns into a multi-candidate race.

DA IMPACT 

The June 4 primary will be the first election since the DWI scandal broke and will have an impact on the race for the Democratic nomination for Bernalillo County District Attorney. 

Appointed DA Sam Bregman is already feeling heat from the scandal from the camp of former US Attorney Damon Martinez. That should be enough to make this a close race, perhaps very close. 

The contest presents a difficult choice for skeptical Dem voters. Bregman's past as a criminal defense attorney has made his dismissal of 200 DWI cases connected to the scandal a political headache and Martinez's service as a top bureaucrat in troubled APD also taints him as an insider. 

PARTY MALPRACTICE?

No Republican is running in the primary so the Dem victor will get the four year term. Yes, it does seem outrageous that the political party party that makes crime their banner issue could not bother to field a candidate for the top law enforcement position in the state's largest and most crime-ridden county. How are we in the media and elsewhere supposed to regard the GOP as a relevant force when they bow out of the race that embodies so much of their philosophy and in the middle of an epic police scandal? Just askin'. 

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Thursday, March 21, 2024

Other Voices: New Mexico Marijuana Bust; Big Hopes Go Up In Smoke; Pot Guru Says Stagnant Sales; Too Many Pot Shops, Inflation, Cheap Fentanyl And Under The Table Dealing Cited As Reasons.  

What a bust. 

The state's two year old legal marijuana industry looks like a too-crowded flea market. 

MLG pounded the table for legalizing pot and finally got it by calling the Legislature into special session and pressuring lawmakers to no end. 

Legal cannabis sales began April 1, 2022 and in spite of indicators pointing in the wrong direction the Governor is celebrating:

Cannabis sales in New Mexico have topped $1 billion in adult-use and medical sales. . .Cannabis consumers have purchased more than $678.4 million worth of cannabis products and $331.6 million in medical products since April 1, 2022. To date, the state has recorded more than 21 million transactions with $75 million in cannabis excise taxes going to the state general fund and local communities. “This is a huge milestone for New Mexico’s cannabis industry,” said Gov. Lujan Grisham. Nearly two years after beginning sales, New Mexico is on the map as a premier hub for legal and safe cannabis and the thriving business community that comes with it.” 

"A premier hub"? Try an oversupplied and stagnant hub. A "thriving business community." That's a mirage mainly visible from airy loft of the Fourth Floor of the Roundhouse.

And $75 million in excise taxes over two years from a billion in sales? That's piddling in a $10 billion state budget. 

Don't take it from this corner. Duke Rodriguez, CEO of Ultra Health, the state's largest cannabis retailer, fact checks the Governor and weed advocates with the cold, hard facts that reveal an industry in turmoil.

The truth is that New Mexico’s regulated cannabis market is not thriving, but barely surviving. The truth is that New Mexico’s cannabis sales are likely headed for decline and contraction, rather than growth.

Now, it is certainly true the cannabis market has grown since April 2022 in certain places. Smaller towns along the Texas border did see large sales increases over the past two years.

However, the central Metro areas experienced a much different reality. In April 2022, Albuquerque did $14.9 million in combined medical and recreational cannabis sales, Las Cruces did $3.7 million, and Santa Fe did $3.5 million.

Sadly, nearly two years later for the most recent month of February 2024: Albuquerque is flat at $15 million, Las Cruces is down to $3.2 million, and Santa Fe is down to $2.9 million. Those numbers come from the Cannabis Control Division’s own “Cannabis Reporting Online Portal.”

Duke Rodriguez
This means that over the past two years, the cannabis market in New Mexico’s three largest and most stable population centers has not grown. It has stayed flat and even shrunk by a million dollars. At the same time, the number of retail locations has exploded. The proverbial pie has not gotten bigger, but the slices for each business have gotten a lot smaller.

Every cannabis enterprise must face this truth to responsibly evaluate the trajectory of its business. After two flat years in most places, additional growth is, frankly, not likely. A continued decline in overall cannabis revenue is the more likely scenario.

If cannabis licensees do not face this truth. . . .then they will be in for a very rude awakening in 2024, 2025, and beyond. Likewise, municipalities that build cannabis taxes into their budgets need to plan for flat or even declining cannabis tax contributions.

If cannabis licensees want to reverse these trends and start growing the pie again, they will need to analyze why overall revenue has stagnated everywhere that is not within 15 miles of Texas.

Inflation in the rest of the economy may mean cannabis consumers spend less on weed. Cheap fentanyl may pull the most desperate into its terrible vortex. Cannabis licensees operating in the red may sell under the table and out the back door. The cannabis trend may simply have peaked.

Whatever the reasons, cannabis licensees cannot create solutions to these challenges until they acknowledge the problem.

One problem Rodriguez touched upon is the marijuana black market which refuses to be undersold. That was supposed to go away, promised the legalization crowd. 
 
The favored few who got in early on legal pot with new licenses--often with political connections--have been the big beneficiaries of legalization. The rest of the state? Not so much.

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Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Ethnic Politics Pops Up In Newly Designed ABQ Senate District; Irish Names Look For Hispanic Support 

With names like O'Malley and O'Neill voters might think the Dem primary battle in state Senate District 13 is between two champions of the Irish. It isn't but ethnic politics could play a pivotal role in the outcome. 

Former Bernalillo County Commissioner and City Councilor Debbie O'Malley is working to defeat Senator Bill O'Neill who has held the seat since 2012, but the district was radically redistricted. 

While the ABQ North Valley and its Anglo Dems once dominated, the district now sprawls to downtown and other heavily Hispanic areas that over the years O'Malley has won.

That being said, the former commissioner's latest campaign piece rolls out her mother Lydia Romero Smith to remind the many old line Hispanic families of her connection o them:

I am the fifth generation of my family to grow up in the heart of our city. . . My mother, Lydia Torres-Romero. . .worked on an aircraft assembly line during World War II. When she and my father, Nick Werner-Smith, got married and moved into their first home at 15th and Sawmill, there was no running water. My mother grew so tired of rinsing her children’s diapers outside that she started a door-to-door petition drive to put in water and sewer lines in the Sawmill neighborhood — and it worked. Her victory  has stayed with me, and I have worked for years at the grassroots level to redevelop the Sawmill area. In 1998, I founded the Sawmill Community Land Trust, a not-for-profit community development corporation. . .

Talk about all politics being local. Not that O'Neill is defenseless. He has fought some health battles but is known as an intrepid campaigner and is already burning up shoe leather. 

Also, the "Fighting Irishman," as we nicknamed him from his days in the state House, can be soothed by knowing that the affinity between the Irish and New Mexico Hispanics is also sewn into the fabric of this historic district. 

Still the redistricting is a daunting obstacle. Over half the precincts are new. O'Neill's North Valley stronghold is still intact but far away precincts in Wells Park, Downtown, Barelas and South Broadway are now the heart of the district where O'Malley, whose last name results from her marriage to Mike O'Malley, has chalked up many victories. 

The winner of the June 4 primary is destined to win the November election. No Republican is running in the heavy Dem area.

O'Malley and O"Neill veer to the left so the race won't mean much to the ideological balance of the Senate. But O'Malley and Dem state Sen, Moe Maestas have turned into public arch-enemies so if O'Malley should get elected and Maestas wins election, Senate President Mimi Stewart would not want them seated next to each other--unless she's starving for entertainment.

THE BOTTOM LINES

A reader writes with this addendum about Tuesday's blog on Rep. Gail Armstrong: 

Gail was raised on a cattle ranch near Datil, in Catron County, not Magdalena in Socorro County which is her current residence. Signed, Leo---Rep. Armstrong's proud former basketball coach. 
 
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Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Gaming The Next State House GOP Leader; Rep. Armstrong May Have Inside Lane; Sports A Variety Of Credentials  

Rep. Gail Armstrong
Of the three names being bandied about to replace Ryan Lane as state House Minority Leader, Rep. Gail Armstrong is looking like the obvious choice.

Armstrong is the spouse of Dale Armstrong and is co-owner with him of the mega plumbing and AC company TLC that has oodles of customers and a fair share of government contracts. The couple also have a ranch in Magdalena in Socorro County. She was raised on a ranch in Datil, NM in Catron County. 

Rep. Armstrong is already in leadership as the House GOP Caucus Chair. In addition she's been in the Legislature since 2017 and is running unopposed for re-election this year. That gives her plenty of time to hit the phones for campaign cash to keep the House GOP from being pushed further into oblivion by the near super-majority Dems who control 45 of the House seats to the GOP's 25.

In fact, Armstrong is that rare political creature who has never had an opponent--not a Republican, Democrat or independent--and this is the fourth election cycle she's on the ballot. 

She was appointed to fill the Socorro area seat (District 49) when then House Speaker Don Tripp resigned in 2017 and whom she worked for as a legislative aide. 

Importantly she has the ability to work with both the Trumpers and non-Trumpers in the divided GOP. 

Calm, open and sporting a collaborative style is how former Lt. Gov. Diane Denish describes her. 

So Armstrong checks numerous boxes but what about policy chops? Well, she is the senior Republican on the House Appropriations Committee and has been active with health care and education issues. 

Just this week she invited MLG to ride along with rural students to and from school as the debate continues over a state rule that could eliminate the four day school week and that much of rural New Mexico is not fond of.

Cathrynn Brown of Carlsbad and Rod Montoya of Farmington are the other names making the rounds for the leadership post but Armstrong would appear to have the edge in the credentials department. Coming off the short and ill-fated tenure of the inexperienced Lane, that may loom large when the House GOP members make their selection in the days ahead.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In the first draft Monday the name of Senate District 21 candidate John Morton was misspelled and we omitted the name of Dem candidate and retired law enforcement office Philip Snedeker.

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Monday, March 18, 2024

Trump Shadow Emerges In GOP State Senate Primaries; Some Candidates Heap Their Praises; Others Look To Lay Low, Plus: A Blog Reader Who Has Never Missed  

This is New Mexico not Alabama so there are still Republicans here who don't genuflect at the mention of Donald Trump. And that is going to be an issue in GOP state primaries.

Already former Sandoval County Commissioner Jay Block is touting his love for Trump as he faces non-Trumper and former state Senator Candace Gould in the GOP race for District 12 in Sandoval County  County and parts fof BernCo. His campaign says:

Commissioner Block (has endorsed Trump). He has been a longtime supporter. At his last campaign rally in New Mexico in 2019 in Rio Rancho Block was honored to have been selected to greet President Trump  and ride in his motorcade. 

Americans, and specifically New Mexicans, have had their backs broken by Biden's failed policies. Our dollar is now worth much less because, instead of building back better, Biden built back broke. As a border state, New Mexicans see the impacts of a wide open border. . . Crime and addiction to fentanyl are at an all-time high. Under Trump's Presidency, our economy was booming. .  Donald Trump had my support in 2016, 2020, and I’m proud to endorse him again in 2024. 

Block looks to cash in on those Trump credentials because Gould was close to the Gov. Martinez's political machine which was not close to Trump.

Supporting Trump may not be Block's only advantage over Gould. The new District 12 is made up of much of Block's old commission district and includes Rio Rancho and Paradise Hills neighborhoods in Bernalillo County.

Gould was defeated in her 2021 re-election bid by Dem Katy Duhigg in Senate District 10. Much of that old district has now been absorbed into District 12. She still has a shot at the win but the chances were higher before Block announced his bid.  
 
The primary winner stands to take the November election The new district is 37% Democrat and 37% Republican. Phil Ramirez is the sole Dem seeking his party's nomination.

ENDORSES TRUMP

Like Block former state Senator Michael Wiener, who is running in a three way GOP primary for District 21 in ABQ's NE Heights, expects most primary voters to be Trump backers. Wiener, who served in the senate in the 90's and is a former BernCo Commissioner says:

I am adding the words "Endorses Trump' to all my campaign signs because I believe backing him against Biden is essential and because I want to show that there is at least one candidate in the race who is behind him. 

Wiener's opponents in the GOP primary are Nicole Tobiassen and John Craig Morton. Morton is known to be a Trump supporter. Tobiassen is seen as the middle of the road contender who, like ex-Sen. Gould, may try to thread the needle when it comes to the ex-president. 

District 21 is represented by the retiring Mark Moores, the only GOP senator from ABQ. 

Retired law enforcement officer Phillip Snedeker and Athena Ann Christodoulou are seeking the Dem nod in the June 4 primary.

NEVER MISSED ONE

Monahan in 2006 (Bralley)
Longtime reader Patrick Milligan (and we mean longtime) writes:

Hi Joe, this is Patrick Milligan from two decades ago. I ran for ABQ City Council way back in 2003. I just wanted to say hi. I haven’t missed reading a single day of your work since 2003. Great job! 

I retired from Sandia Labs after 32 years two years ago and moved to Abilene, Texas and love it here. It’s a little closer to my political DNA. 

Anyway, I just wanted to say hello and put in a good word for one of my ex-employees from Sandia. Republican Clay Pryor is running for Bernalillo County Clerk. I know he has a tough road ahead but I will be interested to see how he does. 

Again, hello from Texas and I love your work. It’s a must read for me every morning. 

Yikes! That reminds us of how long we've been at this (20 years as of last October) and of the times and memories we've shared with so many New Mexicans and others. Thanks for those kind words, Patrick, and for that incredible streak of checking in here. Here you are on the blog of April 3, 2004

That entry was from a Saturday, reflecting a time when we reported and blogged up to seven days a week as we worked to establish the blog as the go to place for New Mexico politics. 

We succeeded in that ambition, thanks to Milligan and so many others.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2024

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Post Filing Day Clippings From Our Newsroom Floor, Plus: On The Media Beat; Santa Fe Paper Goes Up For Sale 

We came with a monster blog on candidate filing day Wednesday but even that was like chipping away at an iceberg. Many political stories fell to our newsroom floor as we pulled together the drama of the GOP's top legislative leaders announcing they have had enough and will leave the Roundhouse. 

That said, lets take our broom and sweep up clippings left behind from a hectic day. . . 

It's not just the R's with leadership changes in store. On the Dem side of the aisle in the state House Majority Leader Gail Chasey ends her tenure this year so the race is on to replace her in the #2 leadership spot. Santa Fe Rep. Linda Serrato and ABQ Rep. Day Hochman-Vigil are the two major contenders. The post will be filled following the November election.

Meanwhile in ABQ SE Heights District 18, where  for decades Chasey held forth, four Dem candidates have filed for the seat, including progressive lobbyist Marianne Anaya whose claim to fame is her accusations of sex harassment by ABQ Dem state Senator Daniel Ivey-Soto. Yet after nearly two years there still has been no complete resolution of the charges, other than Dems kicking Ivey-Soto out of his Rules Committee chairmanship. 

The other Dem hopefuls for the Chasey seat in the June 4 primary are Anjali Taneja, Juan Larranaga and Gloria Doherty. No R filed for this all Dem all the time district.

 In ABQ NE Heights House District 31, which is solidly Republican, Nicole Chavez, who announced earlier she would seek the GOP nomination to replace outgoing Rep. Bill Rehm, has company. 

Leadership trainer and NRA advocate Patrick Huested and Sarah Jane Allen, who once sought the state GOP chairmanship, have also filed for the seat. Winning the primary there is tantamount to winning th election in this district, the only remaining one in the city with a GOP rep. But Dem Vicky Estrada-Bustillo filed her candidacy and will give it a shot. 

House Minority Leader Ryan Lane will shed that title today. After announcing he will not seek re-election to his Farmington are state House seat, Lane Wednesday said he will resign the seat effective today. That means the San Juan County Commission will recommend a replacement to fill out the remainder of his term which runs until the end of the year retired FBI agent William Hall filed for the seat this week. We'll watch to see if that's the name the Commission sends to MLG who ultimately makes the appointment. 

THE MEDIA BEAT

The 50 year old Santa Fe Reporter is the latest media outlet facing an existential crisis as the weekly paper's longtime owners have put it up for sale and are seeking a local buyer:

(As owners) Richard Meeker and Mark Zusman. . . embark on a new project in Oregon, they are actively seeking a New Mexico buyer to become the fourth generation of SFR stewards. . . the Santa Fe Reporter is in good health, both journalistically and financially,” Meeker says. . . Today local, independent ownership is the real key to success in the newspaper business. We are making this public announcement in the hopes it will attract interest from residents of Santa Fe.”

The first hint that the Reporter, founded in 1974, was reassessing its model was when they began soliciting financial support from readers even as the paper continued to attract a stable of advertisers. That the Reporter is publicly seeking a buyer suggests private efforts to sell it have not been successful. 

That's not to say the product has diminished but public interest has waned in local news and when it is in demand, readers are on the internet. Publishing in ink is expensive and nearly an anachronism.

Last year a group of conservative NM investors including former NM GOP chairman Harvey Yates, Jr. purchased the Rio Grande Sun and the Artesia Daily Press. Perhaps the Reporter will follow the same path, although not with conservative ownership. There are still things in Santa Fe that don't change. 

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Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Filing Day Drama: Top Two GOP Legislative Leaders Announce They Will Not Seek Re-election; On The Way Out Sen. Baca Slams Dems Over Redistricting; Hands Off Seat And Draws Criticism; House Minority Leader Lane Also Bows Out, And: BernCo Oldtimers Vie For Treasurer And Clerk Posts 

Sen. Baca
The official filing day for the state's 112 legislative seats turned dramatic Tuesday as the top two Republican legislative leaders decided not to seek re-election, throwing open both their leadership positions and their legislative seats and stunning the long-suffering GOP rank and file.  

All legislative and county candidate filings here

The unexpected decision of state Senator and Minority Leader Greg Baca of Valencia County and state Rep. and House Minority Leader Ryan Lane of Farmington added to what was already a lengthy list of voluntary departures from the Roundhouse. 

Dem consultant Sisto Abeyta reports 13 of the 42 senators have decided not to seek re-election and 9 of the 70 House members are also leaving, making for one of the largest departing groups in recent history. 

There are many individual reasons for those leaving and a couple of House members are now running for Senate but Abeyta said increased polarization of politics is extracting a toll. He says the state GOP has a lot in common with their brethren in the US House where Trump and anti-Trump factions continually battle.

Baca and Lane have been at the center of that polarization not only with the Democrats but within their own party. 

The Republicans have suffered some of their worst electoral results in their history in the last decade. All statewide offices and the entire Legislature are controlled by the Democrats. The R's have been reduced to bystanders at the Roundhouse with the Dems dominating the Senate 27-15 and the House 45 to 25. 

Sanchez said the outcome of legislative redistricting--controlled by the Dems--was behind his decision

It is clear to me that the greatest good I can do for the people of my community and the State of New Mexico does not lie in seeking another term in the legislature. Though this announcement may come as a shock to some, careful observers of the progressive plan to pit two Hispanic Republicans against each other through redistricting may have seen this coming. In short, I refuse to allow the radical left to pit brother against brother.

THE SANCHEZ-BACA PLAY

Sanchez and Baca

Soon after Baca announced he was out, GOP Senator Josh Sanchez of District 30 announced he would switch districts and seek the Baca District 29 seat. In the redistricting Sanchez, also from Valencia County, was placed in Baca's District 29.  

Baca endorsed Sanchez on social media Tuesday night.

Sanchez will be unopposed in the GOP primary and will face Democrat Tina Garcia, a former Valencia County Magistrate Judge in November. 

Our Senior Republicans say the race leans Republican but does have swing characteristics that make a Dem win possible. 

In District 30 that Sanchez has represented, former Dem state Senator Clemente Sanchez will be in a primary with Angel Charly of Acoma Pueblo, endorsed by Sen. Heinrich. 

With no Republican running the Dem primary winner will be on their way to the Senate. Some R's were critical of Baca and Sanchez for the lateness of their switcheroo, saying it did not leave time for a GOP candidate to gather signatures to compete in District 30 and unnecessarily handed the Dems the seat. 

One Dem consultant called the hand-off a "sleazy move" that demonstrates the "incompetence" of the Senate Republicans who now give up a coveted seat without a fight. That's probably a story line Sanchez will endure from Dem rival Garcia. 

While Baca cited redistricting for his surprise, our sources noted that his decision was abrupt. They report just prior to his decision to not seek a third term he quarreled with prominent and wealthy Republicans over candidate recruitment and fund-raising. 

We're told those party powers were especially irked over Baca's support for having disgraced GOP Senator Cliff Pirtle run for a vacant Roswell state House seat after bowing out of his Senate seat. 

After the scandal broke over the married lawmaker's affair with a Senate staffer, Pirtle said he would not seek another term but later said he might reverse that decision. He ended up not running for anything.

Roswell State Rep. Candy Ezzell made her candidacy for the Pirtle seat in the Roswell area official Tuesday and is expected to have few problems winning the primary and general elections. 

Baca, an attorney, had a glorious start to his political career in 2016 when he won election by ousting Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez with the help of GOP Gov. Susana Martinez, an arch-enemy of  Sanchez's. Now the tables have been turned as they so often are on the treacherous terrain of La Politica.

CHANGING LANES

The double dose of GOP chaos continued with GOP House Minority Leader Ryan Lane who, our sources report, held a virtual meeting of the House Republican caucus last night to officially inform them that he was not seeking re-election and cited family considerations. However, his status as leader was left unresolved.

Lane announced Wednesday he will resign from his seat which means an appointment to replace him for the rest of this term will be made by the San Juan County Commission.

The leadership position for the Farmington attorney has been trying. When chosen in November of '22 he was seen as a possible force for bringing the House Republicans together. But that was not to be and the pressure of fund-raising also hung over his head

 A Senior Alligator opined that he expected Lane to be replaced as Leader "sooner rather than later." Former Minority Leader James Townsend could be placeholder. He's running for state Senate and has an easy race. 

Former state Rep. Rebecca Dow left the House to run for Governor and is running again for the House in the south with a good chance of winning. Her name as a possible Lane replacement came up because the rules allow her to keep the seniority she previously accumulated and she is seen as politically savvy.  

Unless the Governor calls a special session there are no legislative session scheduled until January of next year. But there is the matter of distributing and raising funds for House Republicans that the Minority Leader is traditionally involved in. That does add a note of urgency to replace Lane. 

Republican retired FBI Agent William Hall has filed for the Lane seat and is running unopposed.

BERNCO ACTION

Eichenberg
Some veteran politicos turned up Tuesday in an effort to renew their careers in the state's largest county.

Former Bernalillo County and State Treasurer Tim Eichenberg filed for county treasurer and former BernCo Assessor and PRC Commissioner Karen Montoya filed for County Clerk. The two are longtime political allies and well-known moderate Democrats. 

Eichenberg, now in his 70's, also served a stint as an ABQ state Senator and has widespread name ID and personal wealth to spend on another campaign. Deputy County Treasurer Ken Scott also filed for the Dem primary setting up a two way race. The seat has not gone Republican for years. Current Treasurer Nancy Bearce is term limited after eight years in office.

In the Clerks race Deputy County Clerk Michelle Kavanaugh will be in a Dem primary battle with Montoya. Current Clerk Linda Stover is term limited. She is said to be eyeing a possible run for ABQ mayor in 2025.

Two Republicans are also running for Clerk--Clayton Pryor and Robert Kwasny--but no R has won the seat in years.

In the BernCo race for district attorney, we earlier reported that progressive Dem Mathias Swonger was ending his campaign but he filed for the position Tuesday along with fellow Dems Sam Bregman and Damon Martinez. However a spokesman for Martinez tells us Martinez has met with Swonger who told him he was indeed suspending his effort because of a lack of valid petition signatures. 

Whoever wins the Dem DA primary wins it all. No Republican filed for the seat despite the party's emphasis on crime as a key issue.   

BernCo Commissioner Adriann Barboa will be busy for the June 4 primary. The Democrat from ABQ's SE Heights District 3 drew two foes--Robert Padilla and Laura Chavez.

In South Valley District 2 being vacated by term limited Michael Quezada, Frank Baca, who was defeated by Quezada in the 2020 Dem primary and William Walker are seeking the Dem nomination. 

 Republican Commissioner Walt Benson of NE Heights District 4 won a free ride on filing day. He was the only one to file for his position and will be getting a second four year term. 

Just think, Walt, now you can read the blog in peace.

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Tuesday, March 12, 2024

Heinrich Wades Into Fiery State Senate Primary; Endorses Foe Of Embattled Incumbent Ivey-Soto; He Snaps Back As He Combats Progressive Challenge; Analysis And Context Of This Top Tier Contest 

Senator Martin Heinrich has waded into the emotionally charged Democratic primary in ABQ state senate District 15 with an endorsement for Heather Berghmans, a challenger of Sen. Daniel Ivey-Soto. But unlike most of Heinrich's dozens of other endorsements this one is anything but routine and he's getting blow-back from the embattled incumbent: 

I wasn't aware that Senator Heinrich lived in my district, in fact I'm pretty sure he doesn't. Still, I wish him well trying to vote for her. 

That sniping is not something the senior senator--who is not a resident of that district--is used to but he did step step on the cat's tail.

Heinrich's endorsement does nothing to improve his standing with Hispanic men--a weak polling spot--so  seeking re-election in his own right this year, he isn't about to get into a direct fight with the wily Ivey-Soto. 

The state senator is an attorney with decades of La Politica experience now in combat with Dem Party progressives over sexual harassment charges and also because of his moderate politics that have repeatedly thwarted the hard left of the party.

For Heinrich it is imperative that he hold his large progressive base in Bernalillo County against Republican Nella Domenici so even if he didn't want to endorse Berghmans he had little choice. He is known as the First Endorser and must go where those votes are.

Heinrich did not make reference to Ivey Soto's ethics issues with progressive lobbyist Marianne Anaya, who has accused the state senator of harrassment dating from 2017, but Ivey Soto points out he has been found guilty of nothing--not by a court of law and not by the Ethics Commission.

But progressives have lowered the bar for such accusations and say Ivey Soto's behavior with women at the Roundhouse has often crossed the line. Berghmans says :

I am challenging incumbent Daniel Ivey-Soto in the Democratic Primary who has has been credibly accused by multiple women of sexual harassment and other forms of abuse over the last two years. 

The stakes are high. A Berghmans win in the primary and general would add to the progressive ranks of the Senate.

CENTRAL ISSUE

Berghmans
This will be a central issue in the June 4 primary: Is Ivey Soto so damaged by the charges that he has already lost the race or will voters scrutinize more fully the charges and determine they are an overreach?

Berghman's candidacy is further tied to that judgement because her life and work experience is light. If elected, she would be the youngest senator. 

A third candidate, animal rights activist Marcy Britton, has previously said she would also run for the Dem nod. Filing day for all legislative candidates is today.

Heinrich leaned into identity politics to give his favored candidate a boost: 

Heather has experience working with many of our Democratic elected officials to pass key legislation on workers’ rights, environmental protection, reproductive care, and common-sense gun safety. Her experience, enthusiasm, and solid understanding of the issues will serve her well in representing State Senate District 15. . . There are only 11 women in the State Senate, and even fewer in her generation. If elected, she’ll be the youngest woman in the State Senate. We need folks like Heather stepping up to run.

Berghman's primary work experience has been as a political aide to the House Dem campaign committee and policy aide to House Speakers Brian Egolf and Javier Martinez. 

She will rely on the well-oiled progressive machine (and unions) to see her through as Ivey-Soto has banked over $100,000 for the contest.

Ivey Soto, first elected in 2012, was a Senate powerhouse, chairing the Senate Rules Committee and presiding over election law legislation like a czar. He was toppled from that chairmanship after the harassment charges and voters will have to decide whether he is still effective going forward. 

There's no question Ivey-Soto is on the ropes and the primary will tilt progressive. But this is a district with a lot of working class Dems, a fair number of Hispanics and perhaps a political atmosphere that may not be quite as punitive for Ivey Soto as last year. We'll keep an eye on it.

As for the Republicans, this is not a district where they will get blown-out. It's 46 percent Dem 27 R and 25 independent but it's close to being "all D all the time" which makes the Ivey-Soto-Berghmans face off all the more critical.  

GOOD START BUT. . .

Reader Michal Hays comments on the Monday blog highlighting Sec. of Education Arsenio Romero:

Secretary Romero is off to a good start, but the finish line is a long way ahead. Once the length of the school day and absenteeism are addressed, the two really big problems will present themselves. One is a state curriculum which, reflective of Common Core, is a demonstration of mediocrity which ensures continued mediocrity. The other is the capabilities of teachers, particularly elementary school teachers. . .The fact is that the majority of their students are not proficient in reading or math by the end of 4th grade. 

Richard Eeds of Santa Fe's KTRC radio sends along this interview he conducted recently with Romero.

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